Emerging Markets Caught Between Rate-Cut Euphoria and Trade Woes – BNN Bloomberg

[…] M. Yap , Bloomberg News BC-Emerging-Markets-Caught-Between-Rate-Cut-Euphoria-and-Trade-Woes , Netty Ismail, Robert Brand and Karl Lester M. Yap (Bloomberg) There are two opposing forces at play in emerging markets. The first is excitement over the dollar’s decline as speculation grows that the U.S. will cut rates soon. And the second is dread over President Donald Trump’s trade war. While Mexico averted the start of new tariffs, Washington’s campaign to shake up trade agreements worldwide is still wreaking havoc on global economies. China’s import and export data on Monday may evidence that pain. But the impact of Trump’s unpredictable tweets will probably be less detrimental on […] last three to four months for EM currencies.’ Developing-nation local-currency bonds capped an eighth day of gains on Friday, the longest winning streak since January 2018. Rate Decisions Russia’s central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said policy makers may reduce interest rates for the first time in a year at their meeting on Friday Traders have boosted wagers for rate cuts to the highest in more than a year The Turkish central bank is due to set rates on Wednesday. Almost all of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the monetary authority to hold rates, even after inflation slipped below 19% last month Despite the lira’s recent gains, it’s probably still premature to ease monetary policy, with the bank only reversing an emergency rate hike as recently as in May, according to Bloomberg Economics Peru’s central bank will probably keep its benchmark lending rate at a nine-year low for a 15th straight meeting on Thursday as trade tensions depress copper prices and damp the outlook for exports Economic Pulse China’s data releases, which include fixed-asset investment, retail sales and industrial production, will help shed light on how the economy is holding up amid the escalating trade war ING Groep NV in a June 6 note said ‘the economy seems to be experiencing only tremors right now and growth appears to be holding up, as in the first quarter of the year’ India will report May inflation data on Wednesday, with economists forecasting that price gains may have accelerated The central bank last week cut its benchmark interest rate for a third time this year and paved the way for more policy easing South African data on April manufacturing on Tuesday, followed […] to boost President Mauricio Macri’s re-election bid The peso stabilized last month, although it still tops global losses for the year The rapporteur of President Jair Bolsonaro’s pension reform proposal is set to send his report to the lower house, where floor votes on the bill could come as soon as the end of this month. Brazil’s real has led regional […]