Turkey heading for a double dip recession

Business News Turkey heading for a double dip recession According to various surveys, the first quarter GDP to be announced on Friday is expected to reveal a decline… 29 May 2019 According to various surveys, the first quarter GDP to be announced on Friday is expected to reveal a decline of 2-3% year on year, but two of the three sources PA Intelligence contacted expect quarter on quarter growth to pick up to a positive 0.5-1% pace. This will allow economy maestro Berat Albayrak to claim that ‘the technical recession is over’, but only to be dismayed to find out that a second one started in 2Q2019.   Since April, all confidence survey and PMI data showed declines, a harbinger of slumping economic activity. Turkey’s economic confidence index at 77.5 pts Turkey’s economic confidence index was recorded at 77.5 points this month, the nation’s statistical authority announced Tuesday. Confidence in Turkish economy fell by 8.5% month-on-month in May, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) said. All sub-indexes contributed negatively to the May figure, the data revealed. “This decrease in economic confidence index stemmed the decreases in consumer, real sector (manufacturing […] period. The data showed that confidence in real sector, services and retail trade went down by 5.3%, 4.4% and 0.7%, respectively, on a monthly basis in May. Economic confidence index is a composite index that encapsulates consumers’ and producers’ evaluations, expectations and tendencies about general economic situation, TurkStat said.  The headline index hit its lowest figure since last October. Turkey’s licensed power generation falls 2.41% in March For PA Intelligence staff, the most reliable leading indicator of industrial production is electricity generation, since Turkey’s leading industries such as iron and steel, cement and glass are highly reliant on energy. Turkey’s licensed electricity production decreased by 2.41% in March compared to […] of 2018, according to the latest data revealed by the country’s energy watchdog. Total production fell to approximately 23.89 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) around 24.48 million kWh in March 2018, Turkish Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) announced on Monday in its electricity market report for March 2019. Turkey mainly produced 21.28% of its electricity hyower plants, 18.51% imported coal, […] week of May 17, total loans decreased by 0.5% w/w, as TL loans increased by 0.2% and FX loans decreased by 0.4%. Year to date, TL loan growth by state banks reached 10.8% (previous week 10.9%), while private banks’ TL lending was flat (previous week 0.5% contraction). Retail loan growth is 0.6% year to date. FX loan contraction is 1.9%. The chart below depicts the loss of momentum in 13 week moving average loan growth, the measure used by Central Bank of Turkey to monitor loan growth. In brief, there is little to write home about the second quarter.  First quarter boom achieved by pumping state expenditures faded as Turkey rapidly reached the limits of its ‘fiscal maneuvering room’.